Databank Research is projecting relative stability for the cedi in 2026, forecasting a year-end depreciation of 7.20 per cent against the US dollar.
According to its 2026 Economic Outlook, the cedi is expected to close the year at approximately GH¢12.85 to the dollar, assuming the absence of major systemic shocks.
The forecast factors in anticipated demand pressures from bulk importers, energy-related payments and Eurobond obligations. It is anchored on a conservative assumption of monthly inflows of about GH¢750 million from GOLDBOD, alongside ongoing reforms within the small-scale mining sector.
According to the report, sustained gold-backed inflows are expected to strengthen the central bank’s capacity to manage market expectations and smooth volatility in the foreign exchange market.
Beyond domestic fundamentals, the outlook also reflects positive external sentiment supported by continued programme backing from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
The report further notes a gradual shift in global reserve management trends, with some central banks reducing reliance on the US dollar and increasing gold holdings. China is highlighted as leading this pivot amid uncertainty surrounding US policy direction.
Databank Research adds that ongoing discussions around reclassifying gold from a Tier 1 asset to High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) status — which would allow it to serve as eligible collateral in repo financing — could represent a structural evolution in the global financial system if implemented.
Although deliberations within the BRICS grouping remain tentative due to concerns around volatility, custody and trust, such a shift could enhance gold’s monetary role, reduce dollar dominance and indirectly support cedi stability through stronger reserve accumulation.
Excluding this low-probability structural scenario, the firm maintains a neutral-to-positive outlook for the cedi, supported by tighter foreign exchange regulations and resilient reserve buffers considered adequate to absorb moderate demand pressures.
