British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is expected to announce a new deal on post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland on Monday, gambling that the reward of better ties with the European Union is worth the discord it might cause within his own party.
In power for only four months, Sunak is pursuing a high risk strategy that he can find a compromise to improve relations with Brussels – and the United States – without sufficiently angering the wing of his party most wedded to Brexit.
He is expected to hold a news conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen later on Monday, while the EU chief will also visit King Charles, a meeting that has already drawn criticism because the monarch is not supposed to be involved in political matters.
The deal seeks to resolve tensions caused by the 2020 post-Brexit arrangements governing the British province and its open border with EU member Ireland, but it remains to be seen whether it will go far enough to end political deadlock in Northern Ireland and satisfy critics in Britain.
“Over the past few months, there have been intensive negotiations with the EU – run by British ministers – and positive, constructive progress has been made,” Sunak’s office said.
The new agreement is expected to ease physical checks on goods flowing from Britain to Northern Ireland and give the British province a say over the EU rules it has to implement under the complicated terms of Britain’s exit from the bloc.
Its success could hinge on whether it convinces the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to end its boycott of Northern Ireland’s power-sharing arrangements. These were central to a 1998 peace deal which mostly ended three decades of sectarian violence in the British province.
If Sunak can win support for the deal he will be able to move past the most contentious issue on his agenda and strengthen his hold on his Conservative Party, while trying to overtake the opposition Labour Party, now well ahead in opinion polls, before a national election expected in 2024.
Were he to fail, Sunak will probably face a rebellion from the eurosceptic wing of his Conservative Party, reviving the deep ideological divisions that have at times paralysed the government since the vote to leave the EU in 2016.
Sunak could have left the Northern Ireland standoff unresolved, but officials in London and Belfast believe he has been motivated to act ahead of the 25-year anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, which could entail a visit from U.S. President Joe Biden.
Biden, who often speaks with pride of his Irish roots, has previously spoken of the need to maintain peace in the province.
