Managing Partner of Konfidants, Michael Kottoh has identified four major global developments that could influence Ghana’s economic performance in the second half of 2026, urging policymakers and businesses to keep a close watch on evolving international trends.
Speaking on Channel One TV’s Quarterly Economic Outlook on Thursday, July 9, under the theme “A Mid-Year Review of the Ghanaian Economy: Measuring Progress, Identifying Risks and Charting the Way Forward,” Kottoh said while Ghana’s economy has shown signs of recovery, external factors will play a significant role in shaping the country’s outlook for the remainder of the year.
He said the first major risk is continued uncertainty surrounding global trade, driven largely by the Trump administration’s tariff policies.
According to Kottoh, although the tariffs were more disruptive in 2025, tensions remain high, with new trade measures and shifting alliances continuing to affect global supply chains.
“The tariff uncertainties continue to impact the global economy,” he said.
Kottoh also pointed to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict involving Iran and the United States, as another key risk.
He noted that while Brent crude oil prices have eased following recent ceasefire efforts, the truce remains fragile, with continued military exchanges creating uncertainty over future energy prices.
A third factor, he said, is persistently high inflation in major economies such as the United States and China, which could have wider implications for the global economy.
Kottoh further highlighted growing concerns over the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence investments in the United States.
He warned that if the AI investment boom were to collapse and push the US economy into recession, the impact could spread to economies around the world.
“If the largest economy in the world tips into a recession, it could drag the rest of the global economy,” he said.
Kottoh urged businesses and policymakers to monitor these global developments closely, saying they will be key determinants of Ghana’s economic performance in the months ahead.
